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Harbour View vs Mount Pleasant Academy — Premier League 2019

Harbour View
Harbour View
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
2/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Harbour View28%
×Draw27%
Mount Pleasant Academy45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harbour View
1.05
Mount Pleasant Academy
1.42

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 35% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 103 away

creates per match

Harbour View
1.28
Mount Pleasant Academy
1.68

allows per match

Harbour View
1.17
Mount Pleasant Academy
0.83

finishing

Harbour View+0.00on par
Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harbour View ↓

Mount Pleasant Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Harbour View or draw
55%
Harbour View or Mount Pleasant Academy
73%
Draw or Mount Pleasant Academy
72%

Winning margin

Harbour View wins by 2+
11%
Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Harbour View 1+ goals
65%
Harbour View 2+ goals
28%
Harbour View 3+ goals
9%
Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals
76%
Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals
41%
Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Harbour View (draw refunded)
38%
Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harbour View at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

Mount Pleasant Academy away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harbour View attack 1.28 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.68 + Harbour View defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Harbour View scores more
28%
level
27%
Mount Pleasant Academy scores more
45%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harbour View vs Mount Pleasant Academy

Mount Pleasant Academy beat Harbour View 2-1 in Premier League on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.