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Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1/13/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 16Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv31%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Beer Sheva42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.09
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.31

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 20% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 126 away

creates per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.18
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.38

allows per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.24
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.01

finishing

Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw
58%
Hapoel Tel Aviv or Hapoel Beer Sheva
73%
Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva
69%

Winning margin

Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+
12%
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals
10%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
43%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 101 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.01 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.18 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.38 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more
31%
level
27%
Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
42%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–4 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 4-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.