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Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
1/22/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 18Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv33%
×Draw26%
Beitar Jerusalem41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.25
Beitar Jerusalem
1.41

Beitar Jerusalem creates 13% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.18
Beitar Jerusalem
1.57

allows per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.24
Beitar Jerusalem
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par
Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw
59%
Hapoel Tel Aviv or Beitar Jerusalem
74%
Draw or Beitar Jerusalem
67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+
14%
Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals
13%
Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
76%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
41%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
45%
Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 101 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.18 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more
33%
level
26%
Beitar Jerusalem scores more
41%

Beitar Jerusalem at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–1 Beitar Jerusalem

Beitar Jerusalem beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 22, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.