Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla — State Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Hapoel Rishon LeZion56%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla20%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 89% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.40 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.00 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Hapoel Rishon LeZion host Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla on Tuesday, 29 October 2019 at 17:35. The match is part of the State Cup 2019/2020 season.
State Cup: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3–0 Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3-0 in State Cup on October 29, 2019.
The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.