Hapoel Ra'anana 1–2 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Hapoel Ra'anana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1/9/2024

State Cup · 7th RoundKarnei Oren Memorial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Ra'anana34%

×Draw26%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Ra'ananaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.42

Hapoel Ra'anana

1.29

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.42

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.50

1.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hapoel Ra'anana

1.33

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Ra'anana

1.33

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ra'anana+0.00on par

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ra'anana ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Ra'anana or draw

60%

Hapoel Ra'anana or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

74%

Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

66%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ra'anana wins by 2+

15%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hapoel Ra'anana 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Ra'anana 2+ goals

37%

Hapoel Ra'anana 3+ goals

14%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

76%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

41%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ra'anana (draw refunded)

46%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ra'anana at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ra'anana attack 1.33 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.50 + Hapoel Ra'anana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Ra'anana scores more

34%

level

26%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

40%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff