Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–1 Maccabi Bnei Raina

Hapoel Petah Tikva

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Maccabi Bnei Raina

12/19/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 10HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva38%

×Draw28%

Maccabi Bnei Raina34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Bnei Raina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.22

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

1.03

creates per match

1.01

1.26

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.03

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.01

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.26

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw

66%

Hapoel Petah Tikva or Maccabi Bnei Raina

72%

Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina

62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

16%

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

34%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

12%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals

68%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals

32%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

53%

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.03 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.01 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

38%

level

28%

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more

34%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff