Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2–0 Hapoel Acre

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Acre

3/18/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 26Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit41%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Acre31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Nazareth IllitExpected goals in this matchHapoel Acre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.11

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.31

Hapoel Acre

1.11

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 18% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 130 away

1.39

creates per match

1.07

1.15

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.39

Hapoel Acre

1.07

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.15

Hapoel Acre

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Hapoel Acre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw

69%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Hapoel Acre

73%

Draw or Hapoel Acre

59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

19%

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

67%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

30%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

57%

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

41%

level

27%

Hapoel Acre scores more

31%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff