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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Ramat Gan — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
11/28/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 7Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba33%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Ramat Gan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.18
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.31

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 129 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.30

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.12

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
60%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Hapoel Ramat Gan
73%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan
67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
14%
Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
12%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
46%
Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.30 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
33%
level
27%
Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
40%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–0 Hapoel Ramat Gan

Hapoel Kfar Saba beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 1-0 in Liga Leumit on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.