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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Acre — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
12/22/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 14Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba37%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Acre36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Hapoel Acre
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 130 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Hapoel Acre
1.07

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Hapoel Acre
1.23

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Hapoel Acre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
64%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Hapoel Acre
73%
Draw or Hapoel Acre
63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
35%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
51%
Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
37%
level
27%
Hapoel Acre scores more
36%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–2 Hapoel Acre

Hapoel Acre beat Hapoel Kfar Saba 2-1 in Liga Leumit on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.