Hapoel Katamon 1–1 Ashdod: Result & Stats

Hapoel Katamon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ashdod

2/17/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 22Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Katamon40%

×Draw27%

Ashdod33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel KatamonExpected goals in this matchAshdod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.16

Hapoel Katamon

1.32

Ashdod

1.16

Hapoel Katamon creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 119 away

1.13

creates per match

1.17

1.15

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.13

Ashdod

1.17

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.15

Ashdod

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Ashdod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw

67%

Hapoel Katamon or Ashdod

73%

Draw or Ashdod

60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+

18%

Ashdod wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals

15%

Ashdod 1+ goals

69%

Ashdod 2+ goals

32%

Ashdod 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)

55%

Ashdod (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Ashdod away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Ashdod defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ashdod attack 1.17 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more

40%

level

27%

Ashdod scores more

33%

Hapoel Katamon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff