Hapoel Haifa 0–1 Maccabi Tel Aviv: Result & Stats

Hapoel Haifa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Maccabi Tel Aviv

12/31/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 13Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Hapoel Haifa27%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Tel Aviv48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HaifaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Tel Aviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.64

Hapoel Haifa

1.16

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.64

Maccabi Tel Aviv creates 41% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 125 away

1.34

creates per match

1.92

1.36

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Hapoel Haifa

1.34

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.92

allows per match

Hapoel Haifa

1.36

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Haifa ↓

Maccabi Tel Aviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Haifa or draw

52%

Hapoel Haifa or Maccabi Tel Aviv

75%

Draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv

73%

Winning margin

Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+

11%

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals

11%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals

81%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals

49%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)

36%

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Haifa at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.36 · 123 matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.97 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.34 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 1.92 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hapoel Haifa scores more

27%

level

25%

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more

48%

Maccabi Tel Aviv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maccabi Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff