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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik — UEFA Champions League 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Preview
17:30
Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
7/29/2026UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundToto Turner Stadium
40%
Hapoel Beer Sheva
model favours
40%21%39%

Hapoel Beer Sheva have scored in 11 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva40%
×Draw21%
Vikingur Reykjavik39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.92
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.33
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.75

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.50

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Vikingur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
61%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Vikingur Reykjavik
79%
Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
22%
Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
85%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
57%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
30%
Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals
85%
Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals
56%
Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
51%
Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Vikingur Reykjavik away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 2.33 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 2.75 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
40%
level
21%
Vikingur Reykjavik scores more
39%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Vikingur Reykjavik have won 3 in a row
  • 72% of Vikingur Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When Vikingur Reykjavik score first, they win 82% of the time
  • 36% of Hapoel Beer Sheva’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Vikingur Reykjavik have scored in 7 games running
  • 38% of Vikingur Reykjavik’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sheva
LLLD
Reykjavik
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hapoel Beer Sheva host Vikingur Reykjavik

July 29, 2026: Hapoel Beer Sheva take on Vikingur Reykjavik in UEFA Champions League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hapoel Beer Sheva host Vikingur Reykjavik at Toto Turner Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.