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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
12/20/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 10Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva38%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Tel Aviv37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.44
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 125 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.92
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.92

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.90
Maccabi Tel Aviv
0.97

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Maccabi Tel Aviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
63%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Maccabi Tel Aviv
75%
Draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
18%
Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
18%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals
76%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals
41%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
51%
Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.97 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.44

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 1.92 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
38%
level
25%
Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more
37%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–1 Maccabi Tel Aviv

Maccabi Tel Aviv beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium in Be'er Sheva.