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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
1/31/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 19Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva40%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Haifa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.49
Maccabi Haifa
1.36

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 10% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 127 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.92
Maccabi Haifa
1.83

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.90
Maccabi Haifa
1.06

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Maccabi Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
65%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Maccabi Haifa
75%
Draw or Maccabi Haifa
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
20%
Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
77%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
44%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
19%
Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
54%
Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.49

Maccabi Haifa attack 1.83 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
40%
level
25%
Maccabi Haifa scores more
35%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Haifa

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Maccabi Haifa 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on January 31, 2024.

The match was played at Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium in Be'er Sheva.