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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Bnei Raina — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1/6/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 15Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva54%
×Draw24%
Maccabi Bnei Raina22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.67
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.96

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 74% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.92
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.01

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.90
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.41

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
78%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Maccabi Bnei Raina
76%
Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina
46%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
29%
Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
81%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
50%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
23%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
62%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
25%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
71%
Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.01 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
54%
level
24%
Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
22%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Bnei Raina

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Maccabi Bnei Raina 4-2 in Ligat Ha'al on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium in Be'er Sheva.