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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Preview
17:00
Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
8/22/2026Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 1Toto Turner Stadium
Big match
53%
Hapoel Beer Sheva
model favours
53%24%23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva have scored in 10 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva53%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Haifa23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.67
Hapoel Haifa
1.02

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 64% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 103 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.95
Hapoel Haifa
1.10

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.93
Hapoel Haifa
1.39

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Hapoel Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
77%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Hapoel Haifa
76%
Draw or Hapoel Haifa
47%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
28%
Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
81%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
50%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
23%
Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals
64%
Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals
27%
Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
69%
Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 113 matches

Hapoel Haifa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.95 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.10 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
53%
level
24%
Hapoel Haifa scores more
23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 37% of Hapoel Beer Sheva’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Possession-dominant
Hapoel Haifa
Balanced
59%Possession42%
83%Pass accuracy78%
14.8ShotsBiggest gap9.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Haifa

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1
Draws
2
Hapoel Haifa
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 40%
1–14–35–02–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sheva
LLDW
Haifa
DWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hapoel Beer Sheva face Hapoel Haifa (Ligat Ha'al)

Ligat Ha'al returns with Hapoel Beer Sheva hosting Hapoel Haifa. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hapoel Beer Sheva host Hapoel Haifa at Toto Turner Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.