Hapoel Acre 4–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Hapoel Acre

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

3/25/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 27Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hapoel Acre38%

×Draw27%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AcreExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Hapoel Acre

1.31

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 74 away

1.16

creates per match

1.46

1.04

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Hapoel Acre

1.16

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.46

allows per match

Hapoel Acre

1.04

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Acre ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Acre or draw

65%

Hapoel Acre or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

73%

Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

17%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

14%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

71%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

36%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

52%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Acre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Acre attack 1.16 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.46 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Acre scores more

38%

level

27%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

35%

Hapoel Acre at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Acre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff