Forest Green 1–1 Oldham: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Oldham

8/11/2018

League Two · Round 2The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Forest Green40%

×Draw27%

Oldham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Forest Green

1.31

Oldham

1.15

Forest Green creates 14% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

1.17

creates per match

1.16

1.15

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Forest Green

1.17

Oldham

1.16

allows per match

Forest Green

1.15

Oldham

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

67%

Forest Green or Oldham

73%

Draw or Oldham

60%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

18%

Oldham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

73%

Forest Green 2+ goals

38%

Forest Green 3+ goals

14%

Oldham 1+ goals

68%

Oldham 2+ goals

32%

Oldham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

55%

Oldham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.17 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oldham attack 1.16 + Forest Green defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Forest Green scores more

40%

level

27%

Oldham scores more

33%

Forest Green at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff