Hang Sai 2–1 Lun Lok: Result & Stats

Hang Sai

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lun Lok

4/30/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 9Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Hang Sai57%

×Draw17%

Lun Lok25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hang SaiExpected goals in this matchLun Lok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.14

2.11

Hang Sai

3.14

Lun Lok

2.11

Hang Sai creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

2.35

creates per match

1.46

2.76

allows per match

3.93

creates per match

Hang Sai

2.35

Lun Lok

1.46

allows per match

Hang Sai

2.76

Lun Lok

3.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hang Sai+0.00on par

Lun Lok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Sai ↓

Lun Lok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Hang Sai or draw

75%

Hang Sai or Lun Lok

83%

Draw or Lun Lok

43%

Winning margin

Hang Sai wins by 2+

39%

Lun Lok wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hang Sai 1+ goals

95%

Hang Sai 2+ goals

81%

Hang Sai 3+ goals

59%

Lun Lok 1+ goals

88%

Lun Lok 2+ goals

62%

Lun Lok 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Hang Sai (draw refunded)

69%

Lun Lok (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Sai at home — creates 2.35, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

Lun Lok away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Sai attack 2.35 + Lun Lok defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.14

Lun Lok attack 1.46 + Hang Sai defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hang Sai scores more

57%

level

17%

Lun Lok scores more

25%

Hang Sai at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hang Sai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff