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Hamsik Academy vs Galanta — 3. liga - West 2020

Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Galanta
Galanta
9/10/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 6Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hamsik Academy42%
×Draw27%
Galanta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamsik Academy
1.34
Galanta
1.11

Hamsik Academy creates 21% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 85 away

creates per match

Hamsik Academy
1.20
Galanta
1.32

allows per match

Hamsik Academy
0.91
Galanta
1.48

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par
Galanta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Galanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw
69%
Hamsik Academy or Galanta
73%
Draw or Galanta
58%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
19%
Galanta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
74%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
39%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
15%
Galanta 1+ goals
67%
Galanta 2+ goals
30%
Galanta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
58%
Galanta (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Galanta away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Galanta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Galanta attack 1.32 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more
42%
level
27%
Galanta scores more
31%

Hamsik Academy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Hamsik Academy 0–2 Galanta

Galanta beat Hamsik Academy 2-0 in 3. liga - West on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.