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Hamsik Academy vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - West 2020

Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
9/24/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 8Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hamsik Academy45%
×Draw27%
Fomat Martin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamsik Academy
1.42
Fomat Martin
1.09

Hamsik Academy creates 30% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hamsik Academy
1.20
Fomat Martin
1.28

allows per match

Hamsik Academy
0.91
Fomat Martin
1.65

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw
71%
Hamsik Academy or Fomat Martin
73%
Draw or Fomat Martin
55%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
21%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
76%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
41%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
17%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
66%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
30%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
61%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Fomat Martin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fomat Martin attack 1.28 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more
45%
level
27%
Fomat Martin scores more
29%

Hamsik Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamsik Academy vs Fomat Martin

Hamsik Academy beat Fomat Martin 2-1 in 3. liga - West on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.