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Hampton & Richmond vs Ebbsfleet United — League #51 2026

Hampton & Richmond
Hampton & Richmond
Preview
14:00
Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United
10/10/2026League #51League #51 · National League South - 11
61%
Hampton & Richmond
model favours
61%25%15%

Ebbsfleet United score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hampton & Richmond61%
×Draw25%
Ebbsfleet United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hampton & Richmond
1.60
Ebbsfleet United
0.64

Hampton & Richmond creates 150% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hampton & Richmond
1.20
Ebbsfleet United
0.67

allows per match

Hampton & Richmond
0.60
Ebbsfleet United
2.00

finishing

Hampton & Richmond+0.00on par
Ebbsfleet United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hampton & Richmond ↓

Ebbsfleet United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hampton & Richmond or draw
85%
Hampton & Richmond or Ebbsfleet United
75%
Draw or Ebbsfleet United
39%

Winning margin

Hampton & Richmond wins by 2+
33%
Ebbsfleet United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hampton & Richmond 1+ goals
80%
Hampton & Richmond 2+ goals
47%
Hampton & Richmond 3+ goals
22%
Ebbsfleet United 1+ goals
47%
Ebbsfleet United 2+ goals
14%
Ebbsfleet United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hampton & Richmond (draw refunded)
80%
Ebbsfleet United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hampton & Richmond at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Ebbsfleet United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hampton & Richmond attack 1.20 + Ebbsfleet United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ebbsfleet United attack 0.67 + Hampton & Richmond defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hampton & Richmond scores more
61%
level
25%
Ebbsfleet United scores more
15%

Hampton & Richmond at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hampton & Richmond will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Ebbsfleet United’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Hampton & Richmond and Ebbsfleet United have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Richmond
WWLWD
United
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hampton & Richmond host Ebbsfleet United

October 10, 2026: Hampton & Richmond take on Ebbsfleet United in League #51. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.