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Hammarby W vs Vittsjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
Preview
13:00
Vittsjö W
Vittsjö W
8/29/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 16Hammarby IP
Big match
68%
Hammarby W
model favours
68%19%13%

Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hammarby W68%
×Draw19%
Vittsjö W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
2.21
Vittsjö W
0.85

Hammarby W creates 160% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.28
Vittsjö W
0.70

allows per match

Hammarby W
1.01
Vittsjö W
2.15

finishing

Hammarby W+0.28scores more
Vittsjö W+0.13scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Vittsjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
87%
Hammarby W or Vittsjö W
81%
Draw or Vittsjö W
32%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
44%
Vittsjö W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
89%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
65%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
38%
Vittsjö W 1+ goals
57%
Vittsjö W 2+ goals
21%
Vittsjö W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
84%
Vittsjö W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.01 · 9 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.15 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.28 + Vittsjö W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.21

Vittsjö W attack 0.70 + Hammarby W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hammarby W scores more
68%
level
19%
Vittsjö W scores more
13%

Hammarby W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Vittsjö W are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Vittsjö W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Vittsjö W have scored in 9 games running
  • Hammarby W have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • 67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Hammarby W’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Hammarby W
Possession-dominant
Vittsjö W
Direct / counter-attacking
60%Possession43%
83%Pass accuracy69%
15.4Shots8.9
2.49xGBiggest gap0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Hammarby WVittsjö W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

8
Hammarby W
1
Draws
1
Vittsjö W
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 50%
2–12–03–26–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DWLWW
W
DWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hammarby W face Vittsjö W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with Hammarby W hosting Vittsjö W. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hammarby W host Vittsjö W at Hammarby IP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.