Hammarby W 2–0 Vittsjö W: Result & Stats

Hammarby W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vittsjö W

3/26/2023

Damallsvenskan · Round 1Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Hammarby W65%

×Draw20%

Vittsjö W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby WExpected goals in this matchVittsjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.85

Hammarby W

2.06

Vittsjö W

0.85

Hammarby W creates 142% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.14

creates per match

0.73

0.98

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Hammarby W

2.14

Vittsjö W

0.73

allows per match

Hammarby W

0.98

Vittsjö W

1.99

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Hammarby W+0.16scores more

Vittsjö W+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Vittsjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw

85%

Hammarby W or Vittsjö W

80%

Draw or Vittsjö W

35%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+

41%

Vittsjö W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals

87%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

61%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

34%

Vittsjö W 1+ goals

57%

Vittsjö W 2+ goals

21%

Vittsjö W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

82%

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.99 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.14 + Vittsjö W defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.06

Vittsjö W attack 0.73 + Hammarby W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hammarby W scores more

65%

level

20%

Vittsjö W scores more

15%

Hammarby W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff