Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Hammarby W
Hammarby W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kristianstad W
Kristianstad W
10/7/2023DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 22Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Hammarby W53%
×Draw22%
Kristianstad W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby W
1.92
Kristianstad W
1.25

Hammarby W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hammarby W
2.14
Kristianstad W
1.52

allows per match

Hammarby W
0.98
Kristianstad W
1.70

finishing

Hammarby W+0.16scores more
Kristianstad W+0.73scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Kristianstad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw
75%
Hammarby W or Kristianstad W
78%
Draw or Kristianstad W
47%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+
30%
Kristianstad W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals
85%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
57%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
30%
Kristianstad W 1+ goals
71%
Kristianstad W 2+ goals
36%
Kristianstad W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)
68%
Kristianstad W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.14 + Kristianstad W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kristianstad W attack 1.52 + Hammarby W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hammarby W scores more
53%
level
22%
Kristianstad W scores more
25%

Hammarby W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damallsvenskan: Hammarby W 1–2 Kristianstad W

Kristianstad W beat Hammarby W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.