Hammarby W 1–0 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Hammarby W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Häcken W

J. Blakstad 54'

5/5/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 6Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Hammarby W37%

×Draw24%

Häcken W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.54

Hammarby W

1.50

Häcken W

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.99

creates per match

2.17

0.91

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hammarby W

1.99

Häcken W

2.17

allows per match

Hammarby W

0.91

Häcken W

1.00

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Hammarby W+0.41scores more

Häcken W-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw

61%

Hammarby W or Häcken W

76%

Draw or Häcken W

63%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+

18%

Häcken W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals

78%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

44%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

19%

Häcken W 1+ goals

79%

Häcken W 2+ goals

45%

Häcken W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

49%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.91 · 5 matches

Häcken W away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 1.99 + Häcken W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Häcken W attack 2.17 + Hammarby W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hammarby W scores more

37%

level

24%

Häcken W scores more

39%

Häcken W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

J. Blakstad

Hammarby W · D

9.0

Match Events

44'

Carly Wickenheiser

54'

J. Blakstad↳ A. Miyagawa

56'

A. Anvegard← S. Sandbech

56'

P. Nystrom← H. Sampaio

64'

Moa Edrud

72'

C. Tandberg← V. Hasund

80'

N. Akgun← M. Jusu Bah

83'

B. Andersson← A. Josendal

84'

Emma Östlund

90'

A. Selerud← T. Tindell

90'

A. Larsson← E. Ostlund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HammarbyHäcken

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots6

1.37Expected Goals (xG)0.35

8Corners1

8Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots6

4On Target2

2Off Target1

5Blocked3

8Inside Box2

4Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

649Total Passes320

552Accurate Passes236

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1