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Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FFadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
3/19/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Semi-finalsTele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hammarby FF45%
×Draw22%
IF Elfsborg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
1.88
IF Elfsborg
1.57

Hammarby FF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
3.05
IF Elfsborg
2.36

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.79
IF Elfsborg
0.71

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
67%
Hammarby FF or IF Elfsborg
78%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
55%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
25%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
85%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
56%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
29%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
79%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
46%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
58%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 3.05, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 3.05 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.88

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
45%
level
22%
IF Elfsborg scores more
33%

Hammarby FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.