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Haman vs Sejong SA — K4 League 2026

Haman
Haman
Preview
10:00
Sejong SA
Sejong SA
7/26/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 18
44%
Sejong SA
model favours
32%23%44%
1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Haman32%
×Draw23%
Sejong SA44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haman
1.43
Sejong SA
1.71

Sejong SA creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Haman
1.00
Sejong SA
1.14

allows per match

Haman
2.29
Sejong SA
1.86

finishing

Haman+0.00on par
Sejong SA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haman ↓

Sejong SA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Haman or draw
56%
Haman or Sejong SA
77%
Draw or Sejong SA
68%

Winning margin

Haman wins by 2+
15%
Sejong SA wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Haman 1+ goals
76%
Haman 2+ goals
42%
Haman 3+ goals
17%
Sejong SA 1+ goals
82%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
51%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Haman (draw refunded)
42%
Sejong SA (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Sejong SA away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haman attack 1.00 + Sejong SA defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sejong SA attack 1.14 + Haman defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haman scores more
32%
level
23%
Sejong SA scores more
44%

Sejong SA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sejong SA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Haman
LDLLW
SA
WDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Haman host Sejong SA

July 26, 2026: Haman take on Sejong SA in K4 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.