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Haman vs Jincheon — K4 League 2026

Haman
Haman
Preview
08:00
Jincheon
Jincheon
9/6/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 21
60%
Jincheon
model favours
19%20%60%
1–2
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Haman19%
×Draw20%
Jincheon60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haman
1.13
Jincheon
2.15

Jincheon creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Haman
1.00
Jincheon
2.00

allows per match

Haman
2.29
Jincheon
1.25

finishing

Haman+0.00on par
Jincheon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haman ↓

Jincheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Haman or draw
40%
Haman or Jincheon
80%
Draw or Jincheon
81%

Winning margin

Haman wins by 2+
7%
Jincheon wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Haman 1+ goals
68%
Haman 2+ goals
31%
Haman 3+ goals
11%
Jincheon 1+ goals
88%
Jincheon 2+ goals
63%
Jincheon 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Haman (draw refunded)
24%
Jincheon (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Jincheon away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haman attack 1.00 + Jincheon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Jincheon attack 2.00 + Haman defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Haman scores more
19%
level
20%
Jincheon scores more
60%

Jincheon at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Haman
LDLLW
Jincheon
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haman vs Jincheon — Match Preview

Haman face Jincheon on September 6, 2026 in this K4 League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.