Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad: Preview & Prediction

Ham-Kam

Preview

16:00

Fredrikstad

11/22/2026

Eliteserien · Round 27Briskeby Arena

Big match

41%

Ham-Kam

model favours

41%25%34%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Ham-Kam41%

×Draw25%

Fredrikstad34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.35

Ham-Kam

1.50

Fredrikstad

1.35

Ham-Kam creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

1.34

creates per match

1.11

1.59

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.34

Fredrikstad

1.11

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.59

Fredrikstad

1.66

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.47scores more

Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

66%

Ham-Kam or Fredrikstad

75%

Draw or Fredrikstad

59%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

20%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

78%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

44%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

19%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

74%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

39%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

54%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.34 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Ham-Kam defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

41%

level

25%

Fredrikstad scores more

34%

Ham-Kam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 80% of Ham-Kam’s matches
71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
20% of Ham-Kam’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.