Hallescher FC 1–1 Chemnitzer FC: Result & Stats

Hallescher FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chemnitzer FC

B. Pintol 9'

A. Fink 58'

8/6/2016

League #80 · Round 2ERDGAS Sportpark (Halle/Saale)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hallescher FC32%

×Draw24%

Chemnitzer FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hallescher FCExpected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.67

Hallescher FC

1.38

Chemnitzer FC

1.67

Chemnitzer FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.30

creates per match

1.73

1.60

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Hallescher FC

1.30

Chemnitzer FC

1.73

allows per match

Hallescher FC

1.60

Chemnitzer FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallescher FC+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC ↓

Chemnitzer FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hallescher FC or draw

56%

Hallescher FC or Chemnitzer FC

76%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC

68%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC wins by 2+

14%

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hallescher FC 1+ goals

75%

Hallescher FC 2+ goals

40%

Hallescher FC 3+ goals

16%

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals

81%

Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals

50%

Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC (draw refunded)

42%

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Chemnitzer FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC attack 1.30 + Chemnitzer FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chemnitzer FC attack 1.73 + Hallescher FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hallescher FC scores more

32%

level

24%

Chemnitzer FC scores more

44%

Chemnitzer FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

B. Pintol

58'

R. Dem← J. Reinhardt

58'

A. Fink

64'

P. Slišković← Tobias Müller

72'

F. Hansch← D. Mast

75'

F. Stenzel← B. Jopek

78'

A. Wallenborn← M. Röser

78'

Hilal El-Helwe← S. Pfeffer

Hallescher

Chemnitzer

22

Kunz

8

Bittroff

6

▼

4

5

7

19

25

▼

Jopek

9

⚽

Fink

11

Frahn

16

▼

1

27

13

22

34

23

▼

Pfeffer

7

Brügmann

17

▼

Röser

5

Gjasula

9

⚽

Pintol

8

▼

Müller

Manager: R. Schmitt

64'▲P. Slišković←▼Tobias Müller

78'▲A. Wallenborn←▼M. Röser

78'▲Hilal El-Helwe←▼S. Pfeffer

Hallescher FC substitutes

25Slišković21Wallenborn11El-Helwe19Stenzel2Schilk33Netolitzky14Furuholm

Manager: S. Köhler

58'▲R. Dem←▼J. Reinhardt

72'▲F. Hansch←▼D. Mast

75'▲F. Stenzel←▼B. Jopek

Chemnitzer FC substitutes

2Dem24Hansch20Stenzel3Mbende29Baumgart14Koch32Tittel