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Haka vs Lahti — Suomen Cup 2018

Haka
Haka
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
3/18/2018Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Play-offsSaharan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Haka36%
×Draw22%
Lahti43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.77
Lahti
1.95

Lahti creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Haka
2.33
Lahti
2.65

allows per match

Haka
1.25
Lahti
1.22

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Haka or draw
57%
Haka or Lahti
78%
Draw or Lahti
64%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
18%
Lahti wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
83%
Haka 2+ goals
53%
Haka 3+ goals
26%
Lahti 1+ goals
86%
Lahti 2+ goals
58%
Lahti 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
46%
Lahti (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.33 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lahti attack 2.65 + Haka defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Haka scores more
36%
level
22%
Lahti scores more
43%

Lahti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haka 1 – 1 Lahti

Haka and Lahti drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Saharan tekonurmi in Valkeakoski.