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Haka vs KuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Haka
Haka
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
KuPS
KuPS
6/29/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Quarter-finalsTehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Haka39%
×Draw23%
KuPS37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.62
KuPS
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Haka
2.33
KuPS
1.91

allows per match

Haka
1.25
KuPS
0.91

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Haka or draw
63%
Haka or KuPS
77%
Draw or KuPS
61%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
20%
KuPS wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
80%
Haka 2+ goals
48%
Haka 3+ goals
22%
KuPS 1+ goals
79%
KuPS 2+ goals
47%
KuPS 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
51%
KuPS (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.33 + KuPS defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.62

KuPS attack 1.91 + Haka defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haka scores more
39%
level
23%
KuPS scores more
37%

Haka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haka 2 – 2 KuPS

Haka and KuPS drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.