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Haka vs Klubi-04 — Ykkösliiga 2026

Haka
Haka
Preview
15:30
Klubi-04
Klubi-04
9/18/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group Stage
46%
Haka
model favours
46%23%31%

Klubi-04 score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Haka46%
×Draw23%
Klubi-0431%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.85
Klubi-04
1.50

Haka creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Haka
2.33
Klubi-04
1.57

allows per match

Haka
1.44
Klubi-04
1.38

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

Klubi-04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Haka or draw
69%
Haka or Klubi-04
77%
Draw or Klubi-04
54%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
25%
Klubi-04 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
84%
Haka 2+ goals
55%
Haka 3+ goals
28%
Klubi-04 1+ goals
78%
Klubi-04 2+ goals
44%
Klubi-04 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
59%
Klubi-04 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.33 + Klubi-04 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Klubi-04 attack 1.57 + Haka defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haka scores more
46%
level
23%
Klubi-04 scores more
31%

Haka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Klubi-04 win just 10% of their away games
  • 69% of Haka’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 71% of Klubi-04’s matches
  • Klubi-04 win just 15% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Haka
WDWLL
Klubi-04
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haka face Klubi-04 (Ykkösliiga)

Ykkösliiga returns with Haka hosting Klubi-04. Match starts September 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.