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Haka vs HJK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

Haka
Haka
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinkiadvanced
6/27/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Haka29%
×Draw22%
HJK Helsinki49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.46
HJK Helsinki
1.95

HJK Helsinki creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

creates per match

Haka
2.33
HJK Helsinki
2.65

allows per match

Haka
1.25
HJK Helsinki
0.59

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Haka or draw
51%
Haka or HJK Helsinki
78%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
71%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
13%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
77%
Haka 2+ goals
43%
Haka 3+ goals
18%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
86%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
58%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
37%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.33 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

HJK Helsinki attack 2.65 + Haka defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Haka scores more
29%
level
22%
HJK Helsinki scores more
49%

HJK Helsinki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haka vs HJK Helsinki

HJK Helsinki beat Haka 3-2 in Suomen Cup on June 27, 2020.