Haka 6–2 EIF: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Haka

FT

6 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

EIF

J. Thusberg 90+3'

S. Ojala 90+1', 53', 32', 28'

E. Ahde 90'

A. Ulmanen 57'

D. Uemura 43'

7/27/2019

Ykkönen · Round 9Tehtaan kenttä (Valkeakoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Haka62%

×Draw19%

EIF19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HakaExpected goals in this matchEIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.23

Haka

2.34

EIF

1.23

Haka creates 90% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 68 away

3.18

creates per match

1.54

0.91

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Haka

3.18

EIF

1.54

allows per match

Haka

0.91

EIF

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haka+0.00on par

EIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

EIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Haka or draw

81%

Haka or EIF

81%

Draw or EIF

38%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+

40%

EIF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals

90%

Haka 2+ goals

67%

Haka 3+ goals

41%

EIF 1+ goals

71%

EIF 2+ goals

35%

EIF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)

76%

EIF (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 3.18, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

EIF away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 3.18 + EIF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

EIF attack 1.54 + Haka defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Haka scores more

62%

level

19%

EIF scores more

19%

Haka at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Ojala

28'

S. Ojala

32'

S. Ojala

35'

D. Uemara

38'

43'

53'

57'

62'

S. Lindholm← B. Bende

64'

J. Tapani← S. Chidi

64'

J. Thusberg← E. Helminen

76'

D. Grondin

82'

M. Kouadjo← A. Ollila

85'

90'

90+1'

90+3'

Haka

EIF

1

24

17

25

21

▼

Bende

11

Jama

18

⚽

Uemura

8

Grondin

13

Lindqvist

9

⚽

Ulmanen

10

▼

1

4

3

2

▼

6

14

20

11

▼

Helminen

7

Hilska

10

▼

Chidi

23

⚽4

Ojala

Manager: T. Tainio

64'▲J. Tapani←▼S. Chidi

64'▲J. Thusberg←▼E. Helminen

85'▲E. Ahde←▼J. Kyöstilä

Haka substitutes

18Tapani19Thusberg9Ahde15Purme16Kari21Keskitalo30Immonen

Manager: Santesmases

62'▲S. Lindholm←▼B. Bende

82'▲M. Kouadjo←▼A. Ollila

EIF substitutes

14Lindholm20Kouadjo6Forsman22Fontaine33Tuovinen46Ferahyan77Wahlstedt

Match Recap: Haka vs EIF

Haka beat EIF 6-2 in Ykkönen on July 27, 2019.

Goals: S. Ojala (28', 32', 53', 90+1'), D. Uemura (43'), A. Ulmanen (57'), E. Ahde (90'), J. Thusberg (90+3').

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä (Valkeakoski).

Haka vs EIF — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Haka vs EIF