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Hajer vs Jeddah Club — Division 1 2018

Hajer
Hajer
FT
2 – 1
Jeddah Club
Jeddah Club
1/2/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 13Hajer Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hajer43%
×Draw28%
Jeddah Club29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajer
1.32
Jeddah Club
1.03

Hajer creates 28% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 127 away

creates per match

Hajer
1.27
Jeddah Club
1.19

allows per match

Hajer
0.88
Jeddah Club
1.37

finishing

Hajer+0.00on par
Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajer ↓

Jeddah Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hajer or draw
71%
Hajer or Jeddah Club
72%
Draw or Jeddah Club
57%

Winning margin

Hajer wins by 2+
20%
Jeddah Club wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hajer 1+ goals
73%
Hajer 2+ goals
38%
Hajer 3+ goals
15%
Jeddah Club 1+ goals
64%
Jeddah Club 2+ goals
28%
Jeddah Club 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hajer (draw refunded)
60%
Jeddah Club (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajer at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 74 matches

Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajer attack 1.27 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Hajer defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hajer scores more
43%
level
28%
Jeddah Club scores more
29%

Hajer at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hajer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Hajer 2–1 Jeddah Club

Hajer beat Jeddah Club 2-1 in Division 1 on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at Hajer Club Stadium in Al-Hofuf.