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Hadiya Hosaena vs Ethiopian Medhin — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
12/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena27%
×Draw29%
Ethiopian Medhin44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
0.93
Ethiopian Medhin
1.27

Ethiopian Medhin creates 37% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Ethiopian Medhin
1.44

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Ethiopian Medhin
0.82

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Ethiopian Medhin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
56%
Hadiya Hosaena or Ethiopian Medhin
71%
Draw or Ethiopian Medhin
73%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
9%
Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
61%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
24%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
7%
Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
72%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
36%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
38%
Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Ethiopian Medhin away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.44 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
27%
level
29%
Ethiopian Medhin scores more
44%

Ethiopian Medhin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hadiya Hosaena 1 – 1 Ethiopian Medhin

Hadiya Hosaena and Ethiopian Medhin drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.