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Hadiya Hosaena vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
2/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena38%
×Draw29%
Dire Dawa Kenema33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
1.14
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.04

Hadiya Hosaena creates 10% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
67%
Hadiya Hosaena or Dire Dawa Kenema
71%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
62%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
16%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
68%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
32%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
11%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
28%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
54%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
38%
level
29%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
33%

Hadiya Hosaena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hadiya Hosaena 0 – 0 Dire Dawa Kenema

Hadiya Hosaena and Dire Dawa Kenema drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.