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Häcken W vs Uppsala W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Häcken W
Häcken W
Preview
13:00
Uppsala W
Uppsala W
10/4/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 21Nordic Wellness Arena
75%
Häcken W
model favours
75%15%10%

Häcken W have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Häcken W75%
×Draw15%
Uppsala W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
2.71
Uppsala W
0.89

Häcken W creates 204% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Häcken W
2.91
Uppsala W
1.10

allows per match

Häcken W
0.68
Uppsala W
2.50

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
Uppsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Uppsala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
90%
Häcken W or Uppsala W
85%
Draw or Uppsala W
25%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
54%
Uppsala W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
93%
Häcken W 2+ goals
75%
Häcken W 3+ goals
50%
Uppsala W 1+ goals
59%
Uppsala W 2+ goals
22%
Uppsala W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
88%
Uppsala W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Uppsala W away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Uppsala W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.71

Uppsala W attack 1.10 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Häcken W scores more
75%
level
15%
Uppsala W scores more
10%

Häcken W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Häcken W score first in only 25% of matches
  • Häcken W have won 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Häcken W’s matches
  • Häcken W sit 1, Uppsala W 14 in the table
  • Häcken W fall short of their xG (2.4 vs 2.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWL
W
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Häcken W host Uppsala W

October 4, 2026: Häcken W take on Uppsala W in Damallsvenskan. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Häcken W host Uppsala W at Nordic Wellness Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.