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Häcken W vs Hammarby W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Häcken W
Häcken W
Preview
11:00
Hammarby W
Hammarby W
10/18/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 22Nordic Wellness Arena
Big match
44%
Häcken W
model favours
44%20%35%

Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
78%
over 2.5 goals
76%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Häcken W44%
×Draw20%
Hammarby W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
2.21
Hammarby W
1.96

Häcken W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Häcken W
3.33
Hammarby W
2.44

allows per match

Häcken W
1.49
Hammarby W
1.08

finishing

Häcken W+0.27scores more
Hammarby W-0.77scores less

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Hammarby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
65%
Häcken W or Hammarby W
80%
Draw or Hammarby W
56%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
26%
Hammarby W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
89%
Häcken W 2+ goals
65%
Häcken W 3+ goals
38%
Hammarby W 1+ goals
86%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
58%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
56%
Hammarby W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.49 · 5 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 3.33 + Hammarby W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 2.21

Hammarby W attack 2.44 + Häcken W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Häcken W scores more
44%
level
20%
Hammarby W scores more
35%

Häcken W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Häcken W have won 3 in a row
  • Häcken W score first in only 25% of matches
  • Häcken W have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Häcken W 1 vs Hammarby W 2
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Hammarby W’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Häcken W
Attack-heavy
Hammarby W
Possession-dominant
55%Possession59%
80%Pass accuracy82%
21.0ShotsBiggest gap13.7
2.70xG2.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Häcken WHammarby W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Häcken W
1
Draws
2
Hammarby W
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 30%
1–00–03–21–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWL
W
DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Häcken W vs Hammarby W — Match Preview

Häcken W face Hammarby W on October 18, 2026 in this Damallsvenskan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Häcken W host Hammarby W at Nordic Wellness Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.