Häcken W 2–0 Hammarby W: Result & Stats

Häcken W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hammarby W

F. Schröder 57'

J. Fossdalsá 49'

5/25/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 8Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Häcken W50%

×Draw22%

Hammarby W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Häcken WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.39

Häcken W

1.94

Hammarby W

1.39

Häcken W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 69 away

2.91

creates per match

2.09

0.68

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Häcken W

2.91

Hammarby W

2.09

allows per match

Häcken W

0.68

Hammarby W

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par

Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw

72%

Häcken W or Hammarby W

78%

Draw or Hammarby W

50%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+

29%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals

86%

Häcken W 2+ goals

58%

Häcken W 3+ goals

30%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

75%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

40%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)

65%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Hammarby W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.94

Hammarby W attack 2.09 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Häcken W scores more

50%

level

22%

Hammarby W scores more

28%

Häcken W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Falk

Häcken W · G

9.3

Match Events

49'

J. Fossdalsá

57'

F. Schröder

59'

T. Sørbo← J. Roddar

61'

M. Jusu Bah← C. Larisey

69'

E. Nyström← B. Andersson

69'

E. Westin← S. Vallotto

79'

M. Nildén← F. Schröder

79'

A. Csiki← R. Kafaji

88'

R. Grant← A. Sandberg

90+3'

Anna Julia Csiki

90'

K. Guillou← A. Jøsendal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HäckenHammarby

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots14

2.11Expected Goals (xG)3.35

4Corners4

13Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots14

7On Target7

5Off Target4

0Blocked2

6Inside Box12

6Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

452Total Passes475

363Accurate Passes398

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0