Häcken W 0–1 Djurgården W: Result & Stats

Häcken W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Djurgården W

A. Bergström 16'

3/26/2023

Damallsvenskan · Round 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Häcken W62%

×Draw18%

Djurgården W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Häcken WExpected goals in this matchDjurgården W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.35

Häcken W

2.51

Djurgården W

1.35

Häcken W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

3.33

creates per match

1.21

1.49

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Häcken W

3.33

Djurgården W

1.21

allows per match

Häcken W

1.49

Djurgården W

1.69

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Häcken W+0.27scores more

Djurgården W-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Djurgården W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw

81%

Häcken W or Djurgården W

82%

Draw or Djurgården W

38%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+

41%

Djurgården W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals

92%

Häcken W 2+ goals

71%

Häcken W 3+ goals

45%

Djurgården W 1+ goals

74%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

39%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)

76%

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.49 · 5 matches

Djurgården W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 3.33 + Djurgården W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.51

Djurgården W attack 1.21 + Häcken W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Häcken W scores more

62%

level

18%

Djurgården W scores more

19%

Häcken W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Bergström

66'

R. Grant← M. Bergman-Lundin

70'

H. Dowd← S. Johansson

73'

K. Karlsen

80'

A. Luik← C. Larisey

80'

A. Lobanova← T. Lindwall

80'

S. Lilja-Vidlund← A. Bergström

86'

E. Lövgren← E. Hed

87'

P. Boakye

89'

T. Almqvist

Häcken

Djurgården

30

Lindahl

4

Kullberg

2

▼

29

6

21

22

8

10

▼

Lindwall

16

▼

Johansson

18

⚽

▼

13

6

19

16

10

22

▼

20

12

28

8

11

▼

Larisey

Manager: R. Vilahamn

66'▲R. Grant←▼M. Bergman-Lundin

80'▲A. Luik←▼C. Larisey

Häcken W substitutes

5Grant3Luik7Zeller14Johansson15Hellekant26Larsson30Young-Geul

Manager: M. Pålsson

70'▲H. Dowd←▼S. Johansson

80'▲A. Lobanova←▼T. Lindwall

80'▲S. Lilja-Vidlund←▼A. Bergström

86'▲E. Lövgren←▼E. Hed

Djurgården W substitutes

7Dowd3Lobanova17Lilja-Vidlund20Lövgren9Mawete14Hedman15Björklund

Damallsvenskan: Häcken W 0–1 Djurgården W

Djurgården W beat Häcken W 1-0 in Damallsvenskan on March 26, 2023.

Goals: A. Bergström (16').

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.

Häcken W vs Djurgården W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: Häcken W 0–1 Djurgården W