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Häcken W vs AIK W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Häcken W
Häcken W
Preview
11:00
AIK W
AIK W
8/23/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 15Nordic Wellness Arena
Big match
76%
Häcken W
model favours
76%15%9%

Häcken W have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Häcken W76%
×Draw15%
AIK W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
2.66
AIK W
0.83

Häcken W creates 220% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Häcken W
2.91
AIK W
0.98

allows per match

Häcken W
0.68
AIK W
2.41

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
AIK W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

AIK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
91%
Häcken W or AIK W
85%
Draw or AIK W
24%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
54%
AIK W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
93%
Häcken W 2+ goals
74%
Häcken W 3+ goals
49%
AIK W 1+ goals
56%
AIK W 2+ goals
20%
AIK W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
89%
AIK W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

AIK W away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + AIK W defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.66

AIK W attack 0.98 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Häcken W scores more
76%
level
15%
AIK W scores more
9%

Häcken W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Häcken W score first in only 25% of matches
  • Häcken W have won 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Häcken W 1 vs AIK W 4
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Häcken W’s matches
  • AIK W win just 16% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Häcken W play Attack-heavy, AIK W Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Häcken W
Attack-heavy
AIK W
Direct / counter-attacking
55%Possession44%
80%Pass accuracy73%
21.0Shots11.8
2.70xGBiggest gap1.20
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Häcken WAIK W

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

6
Häcken W
0
Draws
1
AIK W
Avg goals: 4.9BTTS: 57%
1–25–26–04–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWL
W
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Häcken W face AIK W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with Häcken W hosting AIK W. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Häcken W host AIK W at Nordic Wellness Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.