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Häcken II W vs Göteborg W — Elitettan 2021

Häcken II W
Häcken II W
Preview
13:00
Göteborg W
Göteborg W
10/31/2026ElitettanElitettan · Round 24
75%
Göteborg W
model favours
9%16%75%

Häcken II W win just 4% against the top half (vs 38% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Häcken II W9%
×Draw16%
Göteborg W75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken II W
0.73
Göteborg W
2.49

Göteborg W creates 241% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 5 away

creates per match

Häcken II W
1.06
Göteborg W
2.40

allows per match

Häcken II W
2.58
Göteborg W
0.40

finishing

Häcken II W+0.00on par
Göteborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken II W ↓

Göteborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Häcken II W or draw
25%
Häcken II W or Göteborg W
84%
Draw or Göteborg W
91%

Winning margin

Häcken II W wins by 2+
2%
Göteborg W wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Häcken II W 1+ goals
52%
Häcken II W 2+ goals
17%
Häcken II W 3+ goals
4%
Göteborg W 1+ goals
92%
Göteborg W 2+ goals
71%
Göteborg W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Häcken II W (draw refunded)
11%
Göteborg W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken II W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.58 · 31 matches

Göteborg W away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken II W attack 1.06 + Göteborg W defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.73

Göteborg W attack 2.40 + Häcken II W defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Häcken II W scores more
9%
level
16%
Göteborg W scores more
75%

Göteborg W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Göteborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Häcken II W sit 14, Göteborg W 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLLLL
W
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Häcken II W face Göteborg W (Elitettan)

Elitettan returns with Häcken II W hosting Göteborg W. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.