Ha Noi 2–2 Quang Nam: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Ha Noi

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Quang Nam

10/19/2019

V.League 1 · Round 25Sân v?n d?ng Hàng Ð?y

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ha Noi55%

×Draw22%

Quang Nam23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ha NoiExpected goals in this matchQuang Nam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.17

Ha Noi

1.94

Quang Nam

1.17

Ha Noi creates 66% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 49 away

2.11

creates per match

1.35

0.99

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Ha Noi

2.11

Quang Nam

1.35

allows per match

Ha Noi

0.99

Quang Nam

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Quang Nam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw

77%

Ha Noi or Quang Nam

78%

Draw or Quang Nam

45%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+

32%

Quang Nam wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals

86%

Ha Noi 2+ goals

58%

Ha Noi 3+ goals

30%

Quang Nam 1+ goals

69%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

33%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)

71%

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.99 · 91 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.11 + Quang Nam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.94

Quang Nam attack 1.35 + Ha Noi defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ha Noi scores more

55%

level

22%

Quang Nam scores more

23%

Ha Noi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff