Ha Noi 3–0 Ho Chi Minh: Result & Stats | Cup

Ha Noi

FT

3 – 0

Ho Chi Minh

10/27/2019

Cup · Semi-finalsSân vận động Hàng Đẫy (Hang Day Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ha Noi67%

×Draw17%

Ho Chi Minh16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ha NoiExpected goals in this matchHo Chi Minh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.30

Ha Noi

2.77

Ho Chi Minh

1.30

Ha Noi creates 113% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

3.20

creates per match

2.00

0.60

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Ha Noi

3.20

Ho Chi Minh

2.00

allows per match

Ha Noi

0.60

Ho Chi Minh

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Ho Chi Minh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw

84%

Ha Noi or Ho Chi Minh

83%

Draw or Ho Chi Minh

33%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+

47%

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals

94%

Ha Noi 2+ goals

76%

Ha Noi 3+ goals

51%

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

73%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

37%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)

81%

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Ho Chi Minh away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 3.20 + Ho Chi Minh defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Ho Chi Minh attack 2.00 + Ha Noi defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ha Noi scores more

67%

level

17%

Ho Chi Minh scores more

16%

Ha Noi at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff