Hønefoss W vs Rosenborg W: Preview & Prediction

Hønefoss W

Preview

13:00

Rosenborg W

10/24/2026

Toppserien · Round 20

52%

Rosenborg W

model favours

24%23%52%

Rosenborg W are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hønefoss W24%

×Draw23%

Rosenborg W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hønefoss WExpected goals in this matchRosenborg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.79

Hønefoss W

1.15

Rosenborg W

1.79

Rosenborg W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

1.16

creates per match

1.83

1.74

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Hønefoss W

1.16

Rosenborg W

1.83

allows per match

Hønefoss W

1.74

Rosenborg W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hønefoss W+0.00on par

Rosenborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss W ↓

Rosenborg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hønefoss W or draw

48%

Hønefoss W or Rosenborg W

77%

Draw or Rosenborg W

76%

Winning margin

Hønefoss W wins by 2+

10%

Rosenborg W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Hønefoss W 1+ goals

68%

Hønefoss W 2+ goals

32%

Hønefoss W 3+ goals

11%

Rosenborg W 1+ goals

83%

Rosenborg W 2+ goals

53%

Rosenborg W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss W (draw refunded)

32%

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Rosenborg W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss W attack 1.16 + Rosenborg W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rosenborg W attack 1.83 + Hønefoss W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hønefoss W scores more

24%

level

23%

Rosenborg W scores more

52%

Rosenborg W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Rosenborg W have scored in 11 games running
Rosenborg W score first in only 27% of matches
73% of Rosenborg W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
70% of Hønefoss W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Hønefoss W win just 13% against the top half (vs 42% against the bottom)
Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals