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Hønefoss W vs Brann W — Toppserien 2021

Hønefoss W
Hønefoss W
Preview
14:00
Brann W
Brann W
8/15/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 12
66%
Brann W
model favours
15%19%66%

Brann W are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hønefoss W15%
×Draw19%
Brann W66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss W
0.96
Brann W
2.23

Brann W creates 132% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 58 away

creates per match

Hønefoss W
1.16
Brann W
2.72

allows per match

Hønefoss W
1.74
Brann W
0.76

finishing

Hønefoss W+0.00on par
Brann W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss W ↓

Brann W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hønefoss W or draw
34%
Hønefoss W or Brann W
81%
Draw or Brann W
85%

Winning margin

Hønefoss W wins by 2+
5%
Brann W wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Hønefoss W 1+ goals
62%
Hønefoss W 2+ goals
25%
Hønefoss W 3+ goals
7%
Brann W 1+ goals
89%
Brann W 2+ goals
65%
Brann W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss W (draw refunded)
19%
Brann W (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Brann W away — creates 2.72, concedes 0.76 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss W attack 1.16 + Brann W defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Brann W attack 2.72 + Hønefoss W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hønefoss W scores more
15%
level
19%
Brann W scores more
66%

Brann W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Brann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Brann W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Brann W have won 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • 73% of Brann W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 70% of Hønefoss W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Hønefoss W win just 13% against the top half (vs 42% against the bottom)
  • Hønefoss W sit 11, Brann W 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hønefoss W vs Brann W — Match Preview

Hønefoss W face Brann W on August 15, 2026 in this Toppserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.