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Hønefoss W vs Bodø / Glimt W — Toppserien 2021

Hønefoss W
Hønefoss W
Preview
11:00
Bodø / Glimt W
Bodø / Glimt W
10/4/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 18
Big match
57%
Hønefoss W
model favours
57%21%22%

Bodø / Glimt W score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hønefoss W57%
×Draw21%
Bodø / Glimt W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss W
2.13
Bodø / Glimt W
1.27

Hønefoss W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hønefoss W
1.16
Bodø / Glimt W
0.80

allows per match

Hønefoss W
1.74
Bodø / Glimt W
3.10

finishing

Hønefoss W+0.00on par
Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss W ↓

Bodø / Glimt W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hønefoss W or draw
78%
Hønefoss W or Bodø / Glimt W
79%
Draw or Bodø / Glimt W
43%

Winning margin

Hønefoss W wins by 2+
35%
Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hønefoss W 1+ goals
88%
Hønefoss W 2+ goals
63%
Hønefoss W 3+ goals
35%
Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals
72%
Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals
36%
Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss W (draw refunded)
72%
Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Bodø / Glimt W away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss W attack 1.16 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

Bodø / Glimt W attack 0.80 + Hønefoss W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hønefoss W scores more
57%
level
21%
Bodø / Glimt W scores more
22%

Hønefoss W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hønefoss W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Bodø / Glimt W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 70% of Hønefoss W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hønefoss W face Bodø / Glimt W (Toppserien)

Toppserien returns with Hønefoss W hosting Bodø / Glimt W. Match starts October 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.